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Oil rises after Iran election, gold holds

market, video, forecast June 21, 2021 5:26 pm today

Oil remains immune to US USD strength

Oil has risen this morning inside Asia after Iran elected a hard-line president over a weekend. That puts any breakthrough inside Iran nuclear deal negotiations inside further doubt, removing some of a risks that Iranian crude become return to global markets officially, anytime soon. Adding to a supply-side risks, a interim nuclear deal extension with world powers is due to expire this week.

a Iranian election seems to has supported oil prices on Friday as well, with Brent crude rising by 0.30% also WTI climbing 0.50%. inside Asia, Brent crude has rallied another 0.63% to USD73.70 a barrel, with WTI jumping 0.68% to USD71.90 a barrel.

Despite a culling of global recovery positioning evident last week across multiple asset classes, oil’s underlying physical demand picture remains positive. Despite a noise inside financial markets, a real world is on a right track also become require increasing amounts of energy as it reopens. That is evidenced by a backwardation inside a oil prompt futures curves. If anything, after markets elsewhere has corrected, lower interest rates should support oil prices, also more so if Iranian crude is not returning to global markets anytime soon.

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Having weathered a US USD storm last week, Brent crude should remain a buy on dips to USD72.00 also USD71.00 a barrel. Only a failure of USD70.00 a barrel tilts a medium-term technical picture to a downside. Initial resistance is at USD75.00 a barrel. WTI should find support on any dip to USD70.00 a barrel, also as long as USD68.00 a barrel holds fast. Resistance lies at USD73.00 a barrel.

Gold holds support finally

Gold had a volatile session on Friday, trading a nearly 40-dollar range between support at USD1760.00 an ounce also resistance also a 100-DMA at USD1799.00 an ounce. It finally finished a day down 0.52% at USD1764.00 an ounce. However, inside Asia, it has retraced all that loss, rising 0.50% to USD1773.00 an ounce.

Notably, gold held onto critical support at USD1760.00 an ounce on Friday. That is important because a daily RSI moved into severely oversold territory on Friday. This morning, it has staged a minuscule recovery today, but is usually an excellent indicator of impending counter-trend corrective moves.

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That means that inside a near term, support at USD1760.00 should remain intact also that gold can stage a recovery from this to unwind a oversold RSI. That rally could once again extend to its 100-DMA at USD1798.00 also a resistance line at USD1800.00 an ounce. However, overcoming this resistance zone become become challenging if intense US USD strength persists elsewhere. Despite gold’s performance today, any recovery rally above USD1780.00 an ounce looks like a selling opportunity rather than a bottom fishing one.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are a authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk also not suitable for all. youre could lose all of your deposited funds.

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Jeffrey Halley

With more than 30 years of FX experience – from spot/margin trading also NDFs through to currency options also futures – Jeffrey Halley is OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific, responsible for providing timely also relevant macro analysis covering a wide range of asset classes.

He has previously worked with leading institutions such as Saxo Capital Markets, DynexCorp Currency Portfolio Management, IG, IFX, Fimat Internationale Banque, HSBC also Barclays.

A highly sought-after analyst, Jeffrey has appeared on a wide range of global news channels including Bloomberg, BBC, Reuters, CNBC, MSN, Sky TV, Channel News Asia as well as inside leading print publications including a New York Times also a Wall Street Journal, among others.

He was born inside New Zealand also holds an MBA from a Cass Business School.

Jeffrey Halley

Jeffrey Halley

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